By the Honorable Francis J. “Bing” West
On Tuesday, March 21, 2017 at 2:15 p.m., the Honorable Francis J. “Bing” West will give a one-time lecture, “Why Does America Win Battles and Lose Wars?” in the LLS Jupiter Auditorium.
Stanford University/Hoover Institution
“Likely,” when considering what strategic realignments the Trump administration will embrace to restore American deterrence and enhance global security, is the least likely adverb to apply to predictions. A Wall Street Journal review of 6,500 market predictions by economic experts found that most were wrong. I don’t know what the Trump administration will do, or how that will affect global security. So here are my guesses—acknowledging most are likely to be incorrect:
- Overt Bargaining. President Trump appears to view geopolitics as business deals, with the actors on opposing sides having legitimate interests that can be accommodated by compromise. Thus, he employs bluster and hyperbole to provide leverage for reasonable settlements between masters of the universe. President George W. Bush displayed a similar belief that kings decide the course of their nations. He thought he could steer Vladimir Putin, Nouri al-Maliki, and Hamid Karzai onto righteous paths, while the citizens of their countries placidly followed. Trump has similar confidence in his own magisterial magnetism. However, a Trump administration devoid of evangelical vision will not overreach, as did Bush. And while President Obama’s global retreat will cease, a merchant creed of quid pro quo deals cannot be America’s lodestone. Some doctrine has to emerge as guidance.
- Return of Balance of Power. With the economy as his top priority, Mr. Trump will leave the fundamental management of foreign policy to his Cabinet. The Secretaries of State, Treasury, and Defense, as well as the Director of the CIA and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, are centrist pragmatists. Under their tutorship, the Trump administration will seek some variation of the balance of power that began with the Peace of Westphalia (1648) and reached its apex following the Congress of Vienna (1814-15). That balance was shattered by the two world wars of the 20th Century. America’s reign as the world’s sole superpower was transitory, lasting for only a decade after the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991. What followed was overreach by George W. Bush and retreat by Barack Obama. Now the Trump administration is certain to resume a restrained competition against our adversaries. Given Trump’s choices to lead his Cabinet, over the next two years some variation of the traditional balance of power will evolve into written doctrine.
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Mr. Obama sought to divest America of global leadership. He believed the arc of history, independent of the acts of man, bent inexorably toward democracy and tranquility. In the real world, maintaining a balance of power among Russia, China and America demands American resolve. Under the Trump administration, America will resume competing, as it has since 1945. After eight years of passivity and retrenchment, this reversion to the mean in American foreign policy—modest as it will be—qualifies as a strategic realignment.
So far, Trump’s competitive instincts have focused upon short-term transactions, while America’s global leadership is based upon lasting principles. Conjoining the evanescent with the enduring will require growth while serving in the Oval Office. Whether and how that growth occurs is unpredictable.
To continue to read the remaining points of the article please click on the link below.
http://www.hoover.org/research/trumps-strategic-realignments
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